Setting the stage
Political landscape:
Since September 2025, Polish politics have resembled a fast-paced sparring match between President Karol Nawrocki and Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s coalition. This rivalry has driven decisive government action, advancing reforms in social policy, civil partnerships, and fiscal governance amid economic pressures and concerns over rising public debt.
President Nawrocki (Law and Justice) has been assertive, signing major laws such as the 2026 budget but also vetoing several proposals and blocking appointments, using his veto powers more frequently than his predecessor.
In November 2025, the Sejm saw a change in leadership: Szymon Hołownia (Poland 2050) stepped down as Speaker and was replaced by Włodzimierz Czarzasty (New Left), formally holding the second-highest office in the state.
The ruling camp also consolidated: Civic Platform merged with Modern and the Polish Initiative to form the Civic Coalition, while the Third Way alliance dissolved, leaving Polska 2050 and PSL to remain in government separately. Within the opposition, Law and Justice faced growing internal tensions.
Despite political frictions, Poland’s economic situation remains solid. In September 2025, Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski publicly urged the United States to support Poland’s invitation to the G20, highlighting the country’s recent economic growth and rising global significance. Poland recently crossed the $1 trillion mark, becoming the 20th largest economy in the world. The United States, as chair of the 2026 summit, officially announced that Poland would be invited to the G20 meeting in Miami. While this invitation is an important milestone, formal G20 membership is not automatic and will require continued diplomatic engagement with current member states.
Economic and geopolitical context:
Throughout 2025, Poland was among the most targeted countries in Europe for statesponsored and politically motivated cyberattacks, with frequent attempts against government institutions and the energy sector. Reports by international cybersecurity firms placed Poland third in Europe for such attacks, underscoring the scale of digital threats facing critical infrastructure.
These developments occurred amid a broader pattern of hybrid warfare tactics across the region, including military pressures near NATO’s eastern flank, reinforcing the importance of resilience and cooperation in security and energy policy. Forum Energii actively addresses Europe’s and Poland’s energy security and the climate link in its analyses, reports, and policy recommendations, providing data-driven insights to support resilient and safe energy systems.
Energy landscape:
Key insights—expanded below
On the Polish public policy scene, Forum Energii has contributed to key developments, including the integration of renewable energy sources with the grid, enhancing energy system flexibility, supporting the development of the new TSO Strategy, assisting coal regions, and shaping the National Energy and Climate Plan. At the EU level, the organization has played an active role in promoting grid modernization, fostering cross-border energy cooperation, and contributing to the RePowerEU agenda.
Management changes
In December 2025, Polska Grupa Energetyczna (PGE) dismissed CEO Dariusz Marzec and appointed Dariusz Lubera as acting CEO amid broader leadership changes. No official reason was provided, although the company faces strategic challenges related to the energy transition and the ongoing coal phase-out.
Joanna Pandera told WNP.PL that the transition poses a complex challenge for the new management and emphasized that transparency and strong oversight are essential to maintain trust in state-controlled companies. The dismissal of both the CEO and deputy CEO without explanation came as a surprise to the market.
Read more >>> Interview given by Joanna Pandera to WNP.pl
TSO strategy
On December 16, Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne (PSE), Poland’s transmission system operator (TSO), presented its new Strategy for 2040, titled “Guardian and Architect: The Strategy of the Polish Power Grid until 2040”. The document highlights the challenges the company will face in ensuring the secure operation of the system while rapidly shifting the energy mix toward renewable sources. PSE has confirmed its readiness to pursue a more ambitious pathway, targeting climate neutrality readiness by 2035. Its outlook projects approximately 66% renewables in electricity generation by 2036–2040 (rising to 70–75% with storage), nuclear at 12%, and around 85% of the overall mix being zero-emission, while noting that offshore wind remains system-cost intensive.
Forum Energii was one of the leading commentators on the new PSE strategy, with Tobiasz Adamczewski participating in the discussion following its presentation. The organisation also contributed to the development of the strategy, which was co-authored by a former Forum Energii expert.
NECP
On Wednesday, December 17, the Ministry of Energy published an updated draft of Poland’s National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) for 2030 and 2040. Finalizing this document is a key step in Poland’s energy transition. The draft outlines two long-term pathways: the “With Existing Measures” scenario, which takes a more conservative approach, and the “With Additional Measures” scenario, which assumes the implementation of the Fit for 55 targets.
Forum Energii was consulted during its preparation, and the draft incorporates many of our recommended actions. Poland is the last EU Member State to submit its NECP; due to missed deadlines (June 30, 2024), the European Commission filed a case against Poland with the Court of Justice of the EU in October 2024.
The NECP presents two transition pathways:
- WEM (With Existing Measures), a slower transition maintaining coal longer, resulting in higher emissions, fossil fuel imports and higher energy prices;
- WAM (With Additional Measures), aligned with current trends, featuring faster deployment of renewables, balancing units, energy storage and electrification.
By 2030:
- Emissions reduction: 43% (WEM) vs. 53% (WAM)
- Share of renewables in electricity production: 51.6% (WEM) vs. 53.2% (WAM)
- Offshore wind capacity: 5,9 GW in both scenarios, but by 2040: 11.8 GW (WEM) vs. 16.1 GW (WAM)
The immediate priority is the rapid finalization and submission of the NECP to the European Commission. Once adopted, the differences between the WEM and WAM scenarios can be used constructively to advocate for a faster energy transition. Ultimately, however, it will be sector-specific legislation—on wind, biomethane, and grids—and ongoing investment processes—not the NECP alone—that will determine the pace of the transition.
The NECP preparation process was challenging, but it marks a clear improvement in analytical quality and transparency, showing that a faster deployment of renewables can lead to lower energy costs, reduced energy poverty, and decreased fossil fuel imports.
Next steps: formal adoption of the NECP and its submission to the European Commission.
On the European stage:
The adoption of the RePowerEU plan, which aims for a complete phase-out of Russian energy imports by 2027, reflects the work carried out by Forum Energii. Our analysis has been widely discussed across multiple platforms, and we have played a leading role in shaping the debate on this issue.
In October 2025, a high-level meeting took place between EU Commissioner Dan Jørgensen and leading European experts, including Forum Energii. Joanna Pandera, President and Founder of Forum Energii, serves as a strategic advisor to Commissioner Jørgensen, providing guidance on regional energy transition strategies, grid development, and climate policy. Insights from this dialogue directly informed the preparation of the EU Grid Package, with Forum Energii contributing key analytical input, scenario modelling, and concrete recommendations on renewable integration, storage deployment, and cross-border energy cooperation.
This engagement underscores the relevance of our expertise in shaping EU energy policy and advancing a coordinated regional energy transition. Beyond the Grid Package, Forum Energii’s analyses have also supported discussions on energy security, cost-effective decarbonization, and the implementation of REPowerEU goals, strengthening Poland’s voice in broader European policy debates. By actively participating in EU-level policy dialogue, Forum Energii ensures that national experiences—particularly the challenges of integrating coal-heavy systems into low-carbon frameworks—are reflected in EU decision-making, fostering both technical feasibility and policy coherence across member states.
Ongoing Forum Energii’s activities (September 2025 - January 2026)
Driving Industrial Decarbonization: mBank Industry Program
Marcin Dusiło, Industry Programme Project Manager, met with over 350 representatives of Polish industrial companies across 7 sessions in the biggest Polish cities. Key insights:
- Polish industry is ready to modernize, but faces barriers from costs, uncertain regulations, and lengthy procedures.
- Electrification of industrial processes is often the fastest, most economical path, reducing emissions and energy supply risks.
- Poland can decarbonize 17 of 24 sectors using currently available technologies.
- Moving production abroad does not equal decarbonization; globally, it may increase emissions and supply chain risks.
- Data-driven planning is critical: measure first, modernize second.
The program concluded with a conference featuring Sonia Buchholtz, PhD, Director of the Financing Transformation & Industry Program, and Marcin Dusiło. Articles on industrial decarbonization were also published in Dziennik Gazeta Prawna (Daily Legal Newspaper / well-known Polish daily magazine).
Marcin Dusiło presenting “The Future of Polish Industry: Is Decarbonization Possible Today?”
Rethinking Buildings: Practical Tools for Multi-Family Building Renovation
One of our key priorities is improving the energy efficiency of residential buildings and addressing energy poverty. We have explored these challenges in publications such as Toolbox: How to Lower Energy Bills (2022), Włocławek Energy Transition Plan to 2040 (2024), and Clean and Affordable Energy in Polish Homes (2024).
In November, under the People, Cities, Regions Programme, we implemented a project focused on the modernization of multi-family buildings, combining educational, research and advisory activities in support of the green and energy transition.
Rising energy costs, ageing infrastructure, and evolving residents’ needs make the modernization of multi-family housing an urgent strategic priority in Poland. Although many buildings have already undergone initial thermal retrofits, significant improvements in energy performance and living standards are still required.
To support informed decision-making, Forum Energii developed two practical publications:
- Building Responsible Assessment System—a tool that helps approach modernization beyond simple thermal upgrades, integrating energy, climate, and social considerations.
- Administrator’s Toolkit. Renovation Guide—a practical guide with tips, document templates, and resources to simplify planning and implementing renovation projects.
We also organized webinars with local government representatives to share knowledge and practical experience related to building modernization.
The publications were prepared as part of a project involving educational, research, and advisory activities in the field of green and energy transition, funded under Poland’s National Recovery Plan.
Example of a card from the guidebook.
2025 Wrapped: Energy Insights in a Glance
Forum Energii presented interactive visualizations summarizing key energy trends from the past year and decade, providing context ahead of the full 2026 report Energy Transition in Poland, including translation into English.
The summary was subsequently republished by leading opinion-forming media outlets in Poland, amplifying its reach and impact in the public debate.
Europe & Ukraine: Powering Security and Cooperation
Forum Energii remained deeply engaged in European energy security and Ukrainian energy transformation during Q4 2025, combining research, policy dialogue, and practical support.
- Brookings Institution (Oct 7, 2025): Experts Maciej Zaniewicz and Danylo Moiseienko co-authored a publication Ukraine’s energy sector is a key battleground in the war with Russia analyzing Ukraine’s energy integration with the EU, highlighting how its transition has made the energy sector a critical arena in the ongoing EU-Russia energy struggle. Their work provided a clear, data-driven perspective on risks and opportunities for both Ukraine and the broader European energy market.
- Webinar (Oct 29, 2025): EU Together: Forum Energii led discussions on joint, cost-effective measures to fully end dependence on Russian fuels, addressing technical feasibility, economic implications, and the role of EU-wide solidarity in energy transition. The sessions offered actionable insights for policymakers and stakeholders across Europe. The panel featured distinguished experts, including: Maciej Ciszewski, Head of Unit, Diversification and Joint Purchasing, DIR-F—Energy Security and International Relations, Directorate-General for Energy, European Commission; Aleksander Vigne, Team leader, Diversification and Joint Purchasing, DIR-F—Energy Security and International Relations, Directorate-General for Energy, European Commission; Péter Kotek, Senior research associate, Regional Centre for Energy Policy Research (REKK); Isaac Levi, Europe-Russia Policy & Energy Analysis Team Lead, CREA. Watch the recording >>> EU Together. Joint, cost-effective actions to fully end dependence on Russian fuels
- Polish-Ukrainian Energy Roundtable (Nov 28, 2025): Forum Energii facilitated a strategic dialogue on energy cooperation, decarbonization, and resilience amid ongoing Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. By bringing together Polish and Ukrainian stakeholders, the forum helped identify shared priorities, concrete actions, and ways to strengthen regional energy security.
Polish-Ukrainian Energy Roundtable
- Green Deal Ukraine Project: In partnership with Helmholtz-Zentrum Berlin, DiXi Group, and Ecoaction, Forum Energii contributed to the launch of the Kyiv Energy & Climate Lab (KECLab)—an educational and research hub supporting Ukraine’s independent energy and climate analysis. By providing expertise, training, and data-driven methodologies, Forum Energii is helping Ukraine build robust decision-making capacity, prepare for EU integration, and accelerate its low-carbon energy transition.
Through these initiatives, Forum Energii demonstrates that Polish expertise can have real impact on regional energy security, cross-border collaboration, and the broader EU energy transition.
Shaping EU Policy: Brussels Roundtable & Fair Transition
On December 4, 2025, Forum Energii took a proactive role in shaping EU energy and climate policy by organizing a roundtable in Brussels with Polish MEPs under the motto “Leaving No One Behind”. The discussion focused on support for coal regions in the 2028–2034 EU budget, ensuring that local socio-economic needs are addressed alongside broader decarbonization goals.
During the roundtable, Forum Energii presented evidence-based analyses on the changing energy mix, progress in coal region transformations, and readiness of local communities for the upcoming energy transition. Forum highlighted gaps in the EU proposal, particularly the absence of a robust Fair Transition Fund framework in the new Multiannual Financial Framework, and proposed practical solutions to ensure stable, targeted, and effective support for coal regions.
By facilitating dialogue between policymakers and local stakeholders, Forum Energii helped bridge the gap between EU-level policy and on-the-ground realities, emphasizing:
- The need for project prioritization in the next funding cycle to maximize socio-economic impact.
- Ways to communicate energy transition effectively to local communities.
- Mechanisms to track and showcase successful projects funded by the Fair Transition Fund, ensuring lessons learned inform future support.
This initiative highlights Forum Energii’s engagement in EU energy policy, combining rigorous research, stakeholder engagement, and actionable recommendations to shape policies that are socially just, economically viable, and technically feasible.
A roundtable in Brussels with Polish MEPs under the motto “Leaving No One Behind”.
Smart Energy Moves: Dynamic Tariffs & Flexible Heating
In the past quarter, Forum Energii released key reports and analyses on dynamic electricity tariffs, showing how consumers can shift their energy usage to hours of lower demand and low-cost renewable generation, resulting in tangible savings and a more balanced grid.
Simultaneously, on November 26, 2025 Forum Energii led expert panels on flexible district heating, highlighting how modernizing the operation of combined heat and power plants can integrate renewable energy, optimize costs, and improve financial performance for operators while stabilizing local energy systems. The analyses demonstrated that with proper planning and adoption of flexible technologies, heat utilities can play a pivotal role in the energy transition, improving efficiency and resilience without compromising service reliability.
Through these initiatives, Forum Energii bridges the gap between research and practice, offering municipalities, utilities, and regulators evidence-based guidance on implementing smart, cost-effective, and climate-friendly energy solutions. By combining technical insight, policy recommendations, and public engagement, the forum strengthens the adoption of innovative energy solutions across Poland, supporting both the decarbonization agenda and consumer interests.
Expert panels on flexible district heating.
Forum Energii at Key Events and Policy Dialogues
1. Climate Change Summit in Bukarest
On 21–22 October 2025, Joanna Pandera, PhD, represented Forum Energii at Central and Eastern Europe’s largest climate-focused event—the Climate Change Summit in Bucharest, which brought together over 1,000 leaders and experts to explore innovative solutions and strategies to tackle climate change. Joanna actively contributed to several high-level discussions.
These engagements allowed Forum Energii to strengthen its regional profile and expand its network among top decision-makers and experts, positioning the organization as a credible source of Polish expertise in climate and energy transition discussions. Participation also enhanced Forum Energii’s influence in shaping regional strategies, while creating new opportunities for collaboration and partnerships in Central and Eastern Europe.
2. Brookings Event: Europe’s Energy Transition
On October 22, 2025, Maciej Zaniewicz participated in a panel titled “Europe’s Energy Transition: From Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine to Trump’s ‘Energy Dominance’” organized by The Brookings Institution.
He presented Poland’s perspective on energy transition and security, discussing the joint analysis with Danylo Moiseienko on the Ukrainian energy sector and highlighting how geopolitical shifts influence regional energy strategies.
Maciej Zaniewicz during a panel “Europe’s Energy Transition: From Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine to Trump’s ‘Energy Dominance’”
3. Shanghai Dialogue on Pressing Energy & Climate Issues 2025
As part of the development of its international programme, Forum Energii participated in the 5th edition of the Shanghai Dialogue on Pressing Energy & Climate Issues, held in China on 6–7 November 2025 (Unlocking decarbonization potential via international collaboration and technology innovation).
The meeting gathered energy and climate experts, policymakers, and industry representatives from Asia, Europe, and North America. Discussions focused on energy security in systems with increasing shares of renewable energy, challenges facing industry, global supply chain dependencies, and key technologies supporting decarbonization. Significant attention was also given to supporting economic diversification in coal-dependent regions.
Joanna Pandera presented the rapid transformation of the Polish energy sector, highlighting that balancing legacy coal capacity while controlling investment costs remains a major challenge. The transition is progressing and is ultimately unavoidable.
Forum Energii participated in Shanghai Dialogue on Pressing Energy & Climate Issues 2025: Unlocking decarbonization potential via international collaboration & technology innovation
4. Unlocking Biomethane Potential for Energy Security
On January 22, 2026 experts from Forum Energii participated in a meeting of the Parliamentary Team on Energy and Hydrogen, where the potential of biomethane as an element of Poland’s energy security will be discussed.
The timing is particularly important, as a draft law supporting large-scale biomethane production facilities and introducing necessary regulatory solutions is expected to be submitted to the Sejm in the near future.
The legislation is essential to unlocking Poland’s domestic biomethane potential, which could reach up to approximately 3 billion m³ per year—around 17% of the country’s projected gas demand in 2040.
Biomethane plays an important role because it can help reduce natural gas imports, strengthen energy security through diversified supply sources, and ensure that investment funds remain in the domestic economy, supporting local municipalities and agriculture.
Dawid Trzeciak i Maciej Zaniewicz participated in a meeting of the Parliamentary Team on Energy and Hydrogen
Forum Energii Internal Organizational Update
1. The Energy Forum has Launched an International Programme
Forum Energii launched a new international program to analyse global energy trends, their impact on Poland, and exchange knowledge with countries with similar energy mixes, particularly coal-heavy economies.
The program is coordinated by Lidia Wojtal, energy and climate policy expert, with Janusz Reiter, diplomat and former ambassador to Germany and the USA, serving as Special Advisor.
As part of this programme, Forum Energii participated in the 5th Shanghai Dialogue on Pressing Energy & Climate Issues 2025, engaging experts and policymakers from Asia, Europe, and North America. Joanna Pandera presented on Poland’s dynamic energy sector, balancing coal capacity with growing renewable shares, and addressing industrial decarbonization challenges.
This initiative strengthens Forum Energii’s role in international energy analysis and policy dialogue, sharing Polish experience and promoting cooperation to accelerate the global energy transition.
2. From Recognition to Impact: 100 Think Tanks to Watch
Among 19 organizations from the EU and EFTA—including two from Poland— Forum Energii has been featured on the “100 Think Tanks to Watch 2025” list by On Think Tanks.
This list is neither a ranking nor an award. It is a peer-curated selection developed by think tanks and experts from the global On Think Tanks community. Its purpose is to highlight effective tactics, smart strategies, and thoughtful approaches that others can adapt within their own contexts.
Forum Energii’s inclusion is a recognition of innovation, collaboration, and tangible impact. It also underscores our mission: to foster meaningful dialogue, propose data-driven solutions, and support a safe, fair, and efficient energy transition.
3. New Faces at Forum Energii
In Q4 2025, Magdalena Bartecka joined Forum Energii, bringing nearly a decade of experience in advisory, advocacy, and stakeholder engagement in energy and economic transitions, particularly in coal and industrial regions. She now leads the Cities and LeadAir Cooperation Forum project within the People, Cities, Regions programme, supporting a just and evidence-based energy transition at the local and regional levels. She succeeds Karolina Grotowska, who has moved to the European Programme while remaining with Forum Energii, reflecting the organization’s continued growth and evolving strategic focus.
At the beginning of the year, Filip Żebrowski joined the Industry Programme as an analyst. An energy engineer specializing in industrial energy efficiency and process decarbonization, he strengthens the team’s technical expertise. Olga Adamska also took on the role of Billing Specialist, overseeing financial settlements and reporting, and ensuring the smooth flow of information and documentation within the organization.
Magdalena Bartecka, Olga Adamska, Filip Żebrowski
